Immigration and a decade of disruption
As we enter a new decade, it's worth looking back at events which helped shape the future direction of immigration and its place in a modern diverse workforce.
The workforce in 2010 was a very different place to the workforce of 2020, and will be almost unrecognisable to the workforce of 2030.
The pace of change over the past 10 years is best illustrated by developments in the technology industry.
Consider for a moment what life was like just 10 short years ago. In 2009 we wore analog watches, had landline phones, hung out in bookstores and even hailed taxis. For the vast majority of the global population, online content streaming (EG. Netflix) was unheard of, and we all took great pride in our extensive DVD collection.
Spotify sounded like something we should take ourselves to the emergency room to have checked out, and whilst we were waiting to be seen in the emergency room we all seemed to be listening to our ipod.
In spite of the pace of change in many areas of technology and commerce, there has been very little disruption in the immigration industry. In fact, the manner in which immigration has been delivered - both at government level and at service provider level - has remained largely unchanged for the past 30 years.
The immigration industry is long overdue for disruption.
To put this in perspective, consider the following key findings from the 2018 Deloitte Global Human Capital Trends Survey:
There are 224 million international migrants globally (or 3.3% of the world’s population), with work being the number one reason why people migrate internationally.
Only 5% of organisations consider themselves ‘world class’ in managing their mobile population.
68% of organisations agree that a mobile workforce is an enabler of business and talent strategies.
In a rapidly changing global economy, where growth is increasingly happening in developing markets, businesses are diversifying their mobility and talent management strategies to align with their evolving business models. Immigration is playing an increasingly important role in this new operating environment.
I'm not a futurist, so I am really going well beyond my comfort zone here. But I can draw on over 20 years experience in the immigration and mobility industry to offer my thoughts on what the next 10 years may look like for businesses operating in the immigration industry, and organisations who are operating in a global talent marketplace.
It will be interesting to see how many of these predictions will materialise in the next decade. In any event, the immigration landscape will look dramatically different in 2030 and I am confident that businesses who embrace the disruption which will occur will enjoy a significant competitive advantage.
Work permit filings will disappear
Let's begin with what I predict to be the biggest disruptor to the immigration industry. I predict that for a large percentage of work visa applicants the need to prepare and file applications with government authorities will disappear.
The manner in which work visas and permits have been transacted has remained largely unchanged for the past 30 years or more. Business leaders constantly tell me that the single biggest obstacle for their business is effectively managing talent and improving the employee experience. The regulations which dictate how visas and work permits are filed is top of the frustration list for the business community.
If talent is the new "oil" of the 21st century, the business community will increasingly demand more efficient and better treatment of their talent by government authorities.
With the increased level of sophistication of technologies and the depth of data available to government, the passport will become the new work permit vehicle. I predict that global occupations in demand will be pre-approved for work status against the passport holders valid passport number. This would render obsolete the need to file separate visa and work permit applications.
Compliance will turn stealth
With the increasing importance placed on biometric data by government authorities, we will see a reduction in visible border compliance.
We would have thought it impossible 10 years ago to board a flight in our home country and travel into a host country without the need to interact with a human being. In 2020, this is becoming commonplace via the use of biometrics and technology advancements (EG: eGate, ePassport, Global Entry).
However, in spite of these developments, governments have not yet fully leveraged from the mountain of data which is available to them with cross-border movement. This will change.
In the next decade I predict that immigration compliance will become far more subtle and government authorities will leverage from their mountain of data, taking a "whole of government" approach to cross-border compliance.
I predict that this new compliance by stealth will include automated compliance measures encompassing immigration, taxation, character, health, industrial relations, as well as other areas of interest to authorities.
This will all happen in real time and will be largely "invisible" to the cross-border traveller.
The concept of global mobility will disappear
With the advancements in aviation technologies, it will soon be possible for people to travel non-stop from Sydney to either London or New York. We will soon see space tourism.
As the world has become smaller and the global marketplace more interconnected, the business community is viewing the management of talent in a similar way to how talent is managed locally.
During the past decade we have already seen the diminished status of full support global expatriate assignments. Assignments are increasingly linked to talent and workforce management strategies - in particular how immigration can help companies attract, retain and incentivise talent.
This trend has led to an increase in project driven movement and the emergence of hybrid assignments, together with greater flexibility around short term work related immigration policies.
It's this backdrop to managing talent which will see the gradual disappearance of global mobility assignments. Whether it be local (domestic) moves or moving internationally, assignments will be treated the same and businesses will see mobility evolve into talent and workforce management.
The convergence of trade agreements and talent management
We've already seen many free trade agreements incorporate skills and people concessions as part of their framework. This trend has opened access to markets for talent which have historically been very restricted or in many cases closed completely.
If there is one very important lesson we have all learned from the recent trade war waged between the United States of America and China, it's that trade agreements are increasingly being "weaponised" to deliver fair access to products and services.
I predict that we will see the emergence of immigration concessions embedded in free trade agreements, and with this development the diminished impact of local immigration laws and policies.
Additionally, this trend will become a valuable vehicle for the business community to collaborate with government to have an effective voice in immigration policy design and implementation.
Service provider business models will change
To conclude my crystal ball predictions for the next decade, I could not ignore the seismic impact which will befall the service provider industry servicing cross-border movement.
The vast majority of service providers supporting businesses moving talent cross-border (immigration, relocation, tax) are overwhelmingly focussed on transactional support. In the case of immigration, whilst this focus on transactional support is understandable, it is a service model which is diminishing in value for the business community.
In locations where immigration systems and processes are well developed - including Australia, the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Singapore amongst others - service delivery models which are overwhelmingly geared towards the preparation and lodgement of applications with the authorities where approval rates for those applications is routinely over 90%, is driving value (and employee satisfaction levels) down.
I predict that there will be a significant shift to insights driven advisory support, and with it an increase in the level of robotics and automation to manage the visa transaction requirements with government.
This trend will see a very different workforce profile of service providers, where insights driven skills and government relations and policy formulation skills will become highly valued and sought after.
I further predict that the business community will demand that service providers seamlessly connect (not merely interact) with one another, and this is likely to be best achieved and delivered via technology.
Hold on everyone. It's going to be a fun ride over the next 10 years.