A viral disruption to the movement of talent
The impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) will have a significant impact on the future of immigration and global mobility.
Currently the world is understandably focussed entirely on defeating Coronavirus to mitigate the impact on health infrastructure and reduce mortality levels. It won’t be long however, before attention moves to the global business environment and what recovery looks like – in fact we’re already seeing signs of greater attention being drawn to the lasting economic impacts of a protracted shutdown of business activity.
It’s important to remember that the shutdown of business, which in some cases has included entire industries, has been government induced. This is important, as the current situation is very different to the impacts wrought on the business community by the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.
Before Coronavirus struck, global economies were strong, and growth rates in our largest global markets were very encouraging. The sudden downturn in the global economy was government induced – albeit driven by a pandemic which no-one could have predicted – and this is one of the reasons why governments are injecting enormous amounts of liquidity into supporting their local economies. The fundamentals of the global economy remain strong.
However, inevitably there will be some impacts imposed on the business community from Coronavirus which will remain with us for the foreseeable future. The way in which we work will change forever, and increasingly we will align to the new normal where work becomes a thing to do rather than a place to go.
One thing I am certain of – as the world economy recovers from the impact of Coronavirus, we will not return to the cross-border environment we lived in January 2020. The Coronavirus Pandemic will deliver a seismic shift in how a global workforce is deployed and utilised – January 2021 will look and feel very different.
I am optimistic about what the future world of immigration and global mobility will look like. Having stated this, the new normal will require a retool of thinking, expertise and delivery by the business community.
With the rapidly changing demands of the business community, there will be very different demands placed on advisors operating in the immigration and global mobility industry.
The following is a summary of my predictions of the changes which are likely to impact the cross-border movement of talent.
Trade agreements will be reviewed and, in many cases, refreshed
In the recent past, a trend emerging with Free Trade Agreements included incorporating people movement concessions within the Agreement. This was often seen as an effective tool to target industry or occupational immigration concessions relevant to targeted markets, without compromising the wider immigration requirements in host country locations.
I anticipate that there will be a widespread review, if it isn’t already happening, of numerous Free Trade Agreements, particularly with trading partners which operate in locations where there was significant impact felt from the Coronavirus outbreak, or where health requirements are deemed to be of a higher risk factor.
Global supply chains will be recast
The impacts of Coronavirus have forced many governments to consider some aspects of globalisation on their local economy. For example, as businesses have established offshore manufacturing facilities in lower cost locations, the impact of Coronavirus on supply chains for essential goods during the pandemic have forced a rethink of the wider societal cost of this practice.
As global supply chains are reviewed, which in many cases will include the rebuilding of certain industry sectors, such as manufacturing, the global movement of talent and skills will also shift.
Employers will closely review and reshape their workforce profile
Prior to Coronavirus, numerous governments had implemented occupational driven skilled migration programs. This policy lever was seen as an effective means for government to target temporary skilled migration to industries where there was a demonstrable skilled shortage.
This emerging policy required employers to have a detailed understanding of their existing workforce profile, as well as a good understanding of their future workforce needs, which in some cases extended out to 3 years into the future. In my experience, most companies struggled to correlate their workforce profile with current and future immigration requirements.
Coronavirus will sharpen the focus on this policy area into the future. I anticipate that most governments will require a strong justification for their need to access temporary foreign labour. This in turn will require robust and sophisticated internal systems to analyse and predict current and future talent requirements.
A change in the global world order may reshape the global movement of talent
President Trump, leader of world’s largest economy, the United States of America, has stated his country will never again be left to rely on foreign countries to supply essential goods and services. I’m sure that the leaders of many other nations are thinking along similar lines.
This trend will bring significant benefits to a number of local economies, particularly in industry sectors such as manufacturing. It will also bring about a significant change in the global world order in terms of growth. I predict that we may see a slowing of some developing economies, which will include a consequential reduction in the movement of talent to those locations.
The Coronavirus Pandemic will stall, or halt, the attempts to privatise visa processing
This week, the Australian Government announced that it was discontinuing its plans to outsource visa processing. The plan to outsource visa processing in Australia was part of a nearly two-year long feasibility and staged tender process. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that the Australian Government took this decision in the midst of grappling with a global health pandemic. Future plans to privatise or outsource visa processing are likely to be shelved for the foreseeable future.
There will be greater control on open borders and border control
A recurring theme I am hearing from numerous leaders worldwide as the impacts of the global pandemic take hold, is that border control is one of the most important obligations of government. Who would have thought that we would have seen the extent of border closures we have seen over the past month, even in locations like Europe where freedom of movement amongst EU Member Countries is part of its charter. We are about to enter a new level of border control, which will likely incorporate very sophisticated biometric systems.
Global mobility will evolve to become global talent management
The concept of global mobility, in one form or another, has been part of the business community for over 30 years. During this time there has been some tinkering of policy levers which drive the mobilisation of labour globally - such as remuneration packaging, taxation treatment, visa options – but the concept of global mobility has largely remained unchanged.
I believe that Coronavirus has had such a significant impact on the business community – both large and small – that we will see employers look to manage their global talent in a fundamentally different manner. As mentioned earlier, I believe that employers will view work as a thing to do rather than a place to go.
Moving talent to locations to deliver work has always been an expensive policy to implement and maintain. However, Coronavirus has now added an additional level of risk to the employer which did not exist at the same level prior to the pandemic. Employers will look to build robust risk management and governance frameworks into their global workforce management programs to mitigate the risks which the pandemic has highlighted to them.
Additionally, many employers will explore alternative ways to deliver work – this may include strategies such as virtual workplace, automation and online collaboration.
We will see a “new deal” on immigration with government
The New Deal was a series of programs, public work projects, financial reforms, and regulations enacted by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the United States between 1933 and 1939. It responded to needs for relief, reform, and recovery from the Great Depression.
The impacts of the global Coronavirus Pandemic are likely to result in an immigration “New Deal” with government, particularly in more developed economies. I can’t see a situation where the immigration status quo that existed prior to the pandemic will remain as the global economy recovers.
In this highly charged environment, where governments are likely to explore more protectionist policies around immigration and the use of foreign talent, it becomes incredibly important for the business community to have a voice at the policy table with government. If approached correctly, a public-private dialogue will deliver an “immigration new deal” which could drive and sustain future business growth for decades to come, and possibly garner a greater degree of local support for targeted use of skilled foreign labour.
There will be a more holistic lens brought to immigration programs
Most countries manage their immigration programs according to a series of “buckets”. For example, skilled migration programs in a country will often be delivered in a discrete manner to the family or student visa programs in the same location.
This approach has often resulted in countries not being able to fully leverage from the benefits of emerging skills which are temporarily residing in-country. A student visa holder will come to study in a location, but they will have limited options to remain longer term in the location which delivered those skills to them.
I think governments will look to develop a stronger policy linkage to certain visa categories to ensure that targeted and emerging skills are retained in order to deliver a greater return on the investment made by governments in certain visa cohorts, such as students. This policy approach may help governments bridge the gap between filling skills shortages required by business now, and the time it will take for local institutions to deliver the necessary talent locally in the future.
The cross-border advisory industry will be disrupted
This brings me to the final, but perhaps the most contentious of the changes which I think the Coronavirus Pandemic will wreak on the business community.
There will be many people who disagree with me, but the changes I have listed above will demand a very different approach from, and relationship with, professionals which operate in the cross-border advisory industry.
For example, whilst there will continue to be a role for advisors who prepare and file visa and work permit applications, most employers will place greater value on professionals who can advise them on the full spectrum of workforce management – including immigration program management, government relations, cross-border policy formulation, talent management planning, talent pipeline management, evolving future of work business models, workforce incentive and optimisation initiatives, etc.
In conclusion
I know at this time that very few of us have much time to think and operate beyond the immediate challenges we face in our personal and professional lives from Coronavirus.
However, as the pandemic curve flattens, and we adjust to the new temporary way of working, attention will soon shift towards what the post pandemic world looks like.
It’s important to start planning for that new business reality before you become a victim of it.